This is an important question! Most Americans who attend church do so in a small church (94% in churches < 500; 59% in churches < 100).* Churches of more than 2000 in attendance represent less than 1/2 of 1% of all churches in America. Maybe, we ought to start an "OCCUPY THE MEGA CHURCH" protest campaign and call ourselves the 99.5%. Maybe, not ;~). The serious and more basic issue is understanding how these underlying trends toward authentic community and a real commitment to doing church missionally will impact most Christians in America--those who attend small and mid-size churches.
I believe small churches are ready-made to do what some Mega churches are trying to create. Small churches are by virtue of their size capable of great intimacy, nimbleness, authenticity and effectiveness. They can't do everything, of course. But, what they do may be done well, in the context of community that is highly connected to externally focused, missional ministry. The problem with most small churches is not their size. It's their tendency to be static and bound by traditional, and internally-focused leadership and thinking.
According to Hartford Institute for Religion research, the aging of churches in America is a greater factor in limiting growth. I read the following statements from this study and I feel a bit overwhelmed:
Congregations where older adults (over age 60) comprise 20% or less of active adult participants are most likely to grow. Congregations in which more than 40% of their regular participants are over 60 are very unlikely to grow. The mere presence of older adults is not problematic in and of itself. But a congregation where a large proportion of the members are older tends to have a cluster of characteristics that inhibit growth. Not only are no children being born to members, but such congregations tend to lack a clear sense of mission and purpose, vibrant worship or involvement in recruitment/evangelism, and they also are more likely to be located in rural areas and smaller towns.**
The percentage of aging members in my small town church is right at the 40% mark. The good news is that we are growing (against the odds). We are growing beyond the typical 2% for churches our size. I believe the difference is the trend toward community and mission (what some are calling an externally-focused church). I'd be interested in a study that looked at small churches that are growing, healthy and effective in ministry. What are they doing? It doesn't make sense to me that 94% of Christians in America are always looking at the 6% of churches > 500, or the 1/2 of 1% of churches > 2000.
Who knows? The trends in both mega churches and small churches may form some new kind of synthesis. Perhaps, a network of small churches with city-wide or regional leadership? And, how do we do this without creating a monolithic denominational structure that is anything but intimate, nimble, authentic and effective? And, how do the egos and power-structures in both the large and small church worlds stand in the way? My guess is that it will be a slow, gradual shift in the way we do church. There will always be the church-of-what's-happening-now. And, there will always be the entrenched, isolated, small traditional church. In the balance between these extremes, I do hope that the living church finds its way forward.
*http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.html#sizecong
**http://faithcommunitiestoday.org/sites/all/themes/factzen4/files/CongGrowth.pdf (p. 3)
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